Sunday, May 27, 2012
Insight
The last time I blogged was in December last year. What a disgrace to my kind. Rest assured that things will start changing from now. I have just been introduced to someone that I have a feeling will be special. I hope things work out for the best. This blog needs a new description and a new name that will fit this dark and twisted time of my life. I'm thinking: Bleeding Pen Chronicles...sounds about right.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
JSE Firms Move in on Aurora
Two JSE-listed companies were interested in bidding for the shuttered assets of liquidated Pamodzi Gold, which were currently undergoing a due diligence inspection by officials of a Chinese state-owned mining company, union officials involved in the mine closure debacle said yesterday.
As many as 5 300 workers at the mines, awarded to Aurora Empowerment Systems in 2009, have been unpaid since March last year.
News of the potential bidders came after a meeting between officials of Solidarity, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the liquidators of the mines at their offices at the Grootvlei gold mine on the East Rand.
A planned meeting with China’s Shandong Gold, which was reportedly considering buying 60 percent of Aurora for $100 million (R702m), was cancelled without explanation.
Key figures in Aurora, Khulubuse Zuma, a nephew of President Jacob Zuma, Michael Hulley, an attorney who defended the ANC president when he faced corruption charges, and Zondwa Mandela, a grandson of former president Nelson Mandela, also stayed away from the meeting, which was arranged to find a solution to ease the plight of the company’s workers who have been left destitute.
A task team involving the labour unions and the liquidators was set up to repair the relationship that had broken down prior to the sacking of lead liquidator Enver Motala by the Master of the High Court in Pretoria last week over disputes about the way the liquidation was being handled.
“The liquidators have taken control and the first step is to keep the workers in the loop.
“Aurora still won’t pay, they refuse to pay and we have reached a dead end,” said Gideon du Plessis, the general secretary of Solidarity.
Du Plessis said the liquidators had indicated that the Chinese delegation sent their apologies for not being able to attend the meeting and that they were not provided with any further details.
According to Du Plessis, it looked as though Shandong had been influenced by Aurora, which appeared to have prevented the delegation from participating in the meeting.
He added that the Labour Department would only be interested if the Chinese made a deal with a recognised mining company and that it would not entertain it if they entered the deal with Aurora.
An NUM official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said “due to the sensitivity of the issue” the meeting also revealed that there were other interested parties who were at an advanced stage of buying out Pamodzi Gold’s assets.
“There are other companies bidding for Pamodzi, although I don’t have the names right now, the liquidators indicated that two are companies listed on the JSE and one is an overseas-based company,” the NUM official said.
He agreed with Du Plessis about the cancellation of the meeting with the Chinese delegation and suggested that Aurora might have been behind it, but was baffled as to what the company stood to gain by pulling such a “stunt”.
Aurora was named the preferred bidder in 2009 for the management of Pamodzi Gold’s assets after lodging R600m funding. However, due to financial difficulties and alleged mismanagement, the company struggled to keep the operations afloat.
One of Grootvlei’s shafts, Number Six, has been stripped of all its equipment by Aurora contractors and desperate workers. It is also alleged that the 400m deep shaft contained the dead bodies of people who had fallen down the shaft as they tried to strip equipment to sell to scrapyards.
Johan Engelbrecht, a liquidator from Icon Insolvency Practitioners, confirmed that a task team had been set up and indicated that labour had been informed about the current situation at Aurora.
Furthermore, discussions would be held between labour movements and liquidators who would issue a joint statement on the way forward regarding the future of Aurora, Shandong’s interests and the mineworkers who have not been paid since March last year.
“We are considering actions and we will put them in place. We will let you know the details next week when we issue a joint official response. But what I can tell you is that organised labour is satisfied with the outcome.”
However, he hinted that a central focus of the task team would be to asses the future of the workers. “We are looking for solutions,” he added. – Business Report
As many as 5 300 workers at the mines, awarded to Aurora Empowerment Systems in 2009, have been unpaid since March last year.
News of the potential bidders came after a meeting between officials of Solidarity, the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) and the liquidators of the mines at their offices at the Grootvlei gold mine on the East Rand.
A planned meeting with China’s Shandong Gold, which was reportedly considering buying 60 percent of Aurora for $100 million (R702m), was cancelled without explanation.
Key figures in Aurora, Khulubuse Zuma, a nephew of President Jacob Zuma, Michael Hulley, an attorney who defended the ANC president when he faced corruption charges, and Zondwa Mandela, a grandson of former president Nelson Mandela, also stayed away from the meeting, which was arranged to find a solution to ease the plight of the company’s workers who have been left destitute.
A task team involving the labour unions and the liquidators was set up to repair the relationship that had broken down prior to the sacking of lead liquidator Enver Motala by the Master of the High Court in Pretoria last week over disputes about the way the liquidation was being handled.
“The liquidators have taken control and the first step is to keep the workers in the loop.
“Aurora still won’t pay, they refuse to pay and we have reached a dead end,” said Gideon du Plessis, the general secretary of Solidarity.
Du Plessis said the liquidators had indicated that the Chinese delegation sent their apologies for not being able to attend the meeting and that they were not provided with any further details.
According to Du Plessis, it looked as though Shandong had been influenced by Aurora, which appeared to have prevented the delegation from participating in the meeting.
He added that the Labour Department would only be interested if the Chinese made a deal with a recognised mining company and that it would not entertain it if they entered the deal with Aurora.
An NUM official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said “due to the sensitivity of the issue” the meeting also revealed that there were other interested parties who were at an advanced stage of buying out Pamodzi Gold’s assets.
“There are other companies bidding for Pamodzi, although I don’t have the names right now, the liquidators indicated that two are companies listed on the JSE and one is an overseas-based company,” the NUM official said.
He agreed with Du Plessis about the cancellation of the meeting with the Chinese delegation and suggested that Aurora might have been behind it, but was baffled as to what the company stood to gain by pulling such a “stunt”.
Aurora was named the preferred bidder in 2009 for the management of Pamodzi Gold’s assets after lodging R600m funding. However, due to financial difficulties and alleged mismanagement, the company struggled to keep the operations afloat.
One of Grootvlei’s shafts, Number Six, has been stripped of all its equipment by Aurora contractors and desperate workers. It is also alleged that the 400m deep shaft contained the dead bodies of people who had fallen down the shaft as they tried to strip equipment to sell to scrapyards.
Johan Engelbrecht, a liquidator from Icon Insolvency Practitioners, confirmed that a task team had been set up and indicated that labour had been informed about the current situation at Aurora.
Furthermore, discussions would be held between labour movements and liquidators who would issue a joint statement on the way forward regarding the future of Aurora, Shandong’s interests and the mineworkers who have not been paid since March last year.
“We are considering actions and we will put them in place. We will let you know the details next week when we issue a joint official response. But what I can tell you is that organised labour is satisfied with the outcome.”
However, he hinted that a central focus of the task team would be to asses the future of the workers. “We are looking for solutions,” he added. – Business Report
Friday, February 4, 2011
Ripple effects of Tunisa and Egypt on the rest of Africa
Ayanda Mdluli
While some analysts have warned that the political and social unrest in Tunisia and Egypt could spread into Sub-Saharan Africa, along with investment and economic implications, others have contended that, the Egyptian and Tunisian contagion is unlikely to spill over into Sub Saharan Africa.
One of the most significant discussions at the Frontier advisory Africa outlook for 2011 at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange recently was the possibility of a knock on effect of the Egyptian and Tunisian crises to the rest of the Sub Sahara.
Some key points to understanding the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt, can be found in the argument that the global financial crisis has had a delayed effect in both countries, with sever economic and political consequences. The revolts were driven by difficult economic circumstances, largely as a result of a massive drop in foreign investments and the cutting of foreign aid by European countries.
Reports from Bloomberg show that Egyptian governments inability to bolster economic growth over the past two decades fuelled the fire of social unrest. Bloomberg notes that the chart of the day shows Egypt as the worst performer among 13 middle eastern, north African and Gulf Countries in terms of per capita gross domestic product growth.
In addition, Bloomberg highlights: “Egypt’s average GDP per capita was a little changes at $2, 160 in 2009, compared with $2, 155 in 1989.”
These figures show that the growing economy is not trickling down to the lower mass of Egyptians, coupled with high unemployment, high inflation and the global financial crisis, says the Bloomberg report.
William Gumede, an associate professor from the graduate school of public development and management at Wits University in Johannesburg said the cutting of foreign aid from the West to some African countries has had a ripple effect on finance for development purposes and NGO’s which are often critical in the fight against poverty.
He explains that both Tunisia and Egypt had good access to Europe during the times of economic prosperity, where trade and investment had ensured economic stability for both African countries. However, now that Europe is struggling, coupled with sever cash shortages to North Africa, the revolts are a direct consequence and a delayed effect of the global economic meltdown.
Gumede argues that this could have a domino effect throughout North Africa and even spread through Sub Saharan, and further claims that the dilapidated structures of the New Partnership for African Development (Nepad) and the African Union could also have a negative impact on Africa’s political and economic standing in the global arena. He says that throughout the continent, many political initiatives are in disarray.
“We have a situation where African leaders in the mid 90’s had developed a new way of doing business with the changing economy by introducing Nepad, today there is no new way of doing things. We have an older generation of political leaders who don’t have the tools to deal with what is going on. There is no new generation of leaders. The world has changed but the leaders have not,” he says.
He continued to argue that people on the ground were looking for leadership which was consistent with the times and modernisation of society and the economy.
African leaders recently appointed the infamous Equatorial Guinea dictator, President Teodoro Obiang as the chairman of the African Union, which has ironically sworn to uphold the values and principles of democracy and human rights on the African continent.
According to some human rights organisations, the president of this oil rich nation has amassed massive wealth for himself, his families and his cronies, while his people live under squalid conditions in the depths of poverty.
The politics of patronage has always been an intrinsic aspect of African politics and economics, where businesses flourish and benefit in times of turmoil, usually at the expense of ordinary citizens and the poor.
Businesses in various sectors such as mining and arms manufacturing have strived on the blood of society, especially in countries such as Sierra Leone, Uganda, Liberia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Gumede says businesses should take a more socio economic stance because they can produce African leaders with a modern vision. “ If businesses helped the communities, and provided talented people with opportunities. Then that community will protect the business.”
The head of asset management at Imara, John Legat, dismisses claims that Tunisia and Egypt’s contagion could spread in through Sub Saharan Africa. He bases his argument on the notion that there is relatively low risk of Egyptians contagion affecting equity values in Sub Saharan Africa, even Middle East and North African equity markets fell by 20% due to the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt. In addition, the Egyptian stock exchange was closed on January 30 and the Cairo market fell by 21 percent before share trading was suspended.
He says that this view is based on the Botswana registered Imara, a merchant banking and investment management group that markets several Africa – focused investment funds “while maintaining strong-on the ground representation in African jurisdictions.”
In his observations, he notes that “Sub-Saharan markets, excluding South Africa, generally have low correlation with one another and with the major international economies.”
He continues to add that political risk has always been considered in Egypt, noting that in the past, “this factor may have been under-estimated by some investors. This underlines the advisability of position-taking in a range of markets when creating a general portfolio with an African focus.”
In contrast, George Lwanda, a project economist from the Development Bank of Southern Africa disagrees with Legats views and points out that ripple effects of the crisis in Egypt can be seen on the weakening rand which is sitting uneasily with investors. He says that investors are becoming increasingly risk averse and have a tendency of looking at Africa as one country, which is putting pressure on Sub Saharan Africa.
He also points out that the rising costs of electricity, weaker rand and oil expenses could be linked with the riots, which could also see inflation rising and ultimately an increase in interest rates.
He continues to argue that that Egypt is the main economy in Comesa which consists of 23 different countries. The effect that this could have on Egypt’s trading abilities could be immense, which could have a direct knock on effect to the other member nations which are a part of Comesa.
“Egypt was identified as one of the main countries to invest in, its difficult to see how this could not have a negative economic impact on the rest of Sub Saharan Africa.”
He further contends that an economic problem, transformed into a political problem in Egypt, and pointed out that in comparison to South Africa, unrests of this nature can only happen on local government level because there is no tight dictatorial grip in the country.
He further claims that the shape in which Egypt will emerge from the crisis will have implications on the rest of Africa, especially if there is no visionary leader to steer Egypt into the right direction.
Through the experiences of Egypt and Tunisia, the toppling of the old undemocratic guard is inevitable. A growing number of unemployed youth and frustrated graduates who did not experience the liberation struggle will set the direction and pave the way for political development and modernization of leadership.
Old rhetoric and aid dependency has no place in the age of new media and the quest for freedom. The disorganization and irrelevance of the African Union has all but sealed the fate of “dictator clubs” which have come to characterize political leadership in Africa.
The minimalist approach to democracy in Africa will continue to be an impediment to the continents development. Instead of moving beyond mere electorlaism. These dictators and presidents for life have continued to conduct artificial elections for the benefits of aid ties, while others have suppressed political opponents clinging to power no matter what the consequences.
While some analysts have warned that the political and social unrest in Tunisia and Egypt could spread into Sub-Saharan Africa, along with investment and economic implications, others have contended that, the Egyptian and Tunisian contagion is unlikely to spill over into Sub Saharan Africa.
One of the most significant discussions at the Frontier advisory Africa outlook for 2011 at the Johannesburg Stock Exchange recently was the possibility of a knock on effect of the Egyptian and Tunisian crises to the rest of the Sub Sahara.
Some key points to understanding the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt, can be found in the argument that the global financial crisis has had a delayed effect in both countries, with sever economic and political consequences. The revolts were driven by difficult economic circumstances, largely as a result of a massive drop in foreign investments and the cutting of foreign aid by European countries.
Reports from Bloomberg show that Egyptian governments inability to bolster economic growth over the past two decades fuelled the fire of social unrest. Bloomberg notes that the chart of the day shows Egypt as the worst performer among 13 middle eastern, north African and Gulf Countries in terms of per capita gross domestic product growth.
In addition, Bloomberg highlights: “Egypt’s average GDP per capita was a little changes at $2, 160 in 2009, compared with $2, 155 in 1989.”
These figures show that the growing economy is not trickling down to the lower mass of Egyptians, coupled with high unemployment, high inflation and the global financial crisis, says the Bloomberg report.
William Gumede, an associate professor from the graduate school of public development and management at Wits University in Johannesburg said the cutting of foreign aid from the West to some African countries has had a ripple effect on finance for development purposes and NGO’s which are often critical in the fight against poverty.
He explains that both Tunisia and Egypt had good access to Europe during the times of economic prosperity, where trade and investment had ensured economic stability for both African countries. However, now that Europe is struggling, coupled with sever cash shortages to North Africa, the revolts are a direct consequence and a delayed effect of the global economic meltdown.
Gumede argues that this could have a domino effect throughout North Africa and even spread through Sub Saharan, and further claims that the dilapidated structures of the New Partnership for African Development (Nepad) and the African Union could also have a negative impact on Africa’s political and economic standing in the global arena. He says that throughout the continent, many political initiatives are in disarray.
“We have a situation where African leaders in the mid 90’s had developed a new way of doing business with the changing economy by introducing Nepad, today there is no new way of doing things. We have an older generation of political leaders who don’t have the tools to deal with what is going on. There is no new generation of leaders. The world has changed but the leaders have not,” he says.
He continued to argue that people on the ground were looking for leadership which was consistent with the times and modernisation of society and the economy.
African leaders recently appointed the infamous Equatorial Guinea dictator, President Teodoro Obiang as the chairman of the African Union, which has ironically sworn to uphold the values and principles of democracy and human rights on the African continent.
According to some human rights organisations, the president of this oil rich nation has amassed massive wealth for himself, his families and his cronies, while his people live under squalid conditions in the depths of poverty.
The politics of patronage has always been an intrinsic aspect of African politics and economics, where businesses flourish and benefit in times of turmoil, usually at the expense of ordinary citizens and the poor.
Businesses in various sectors such as mining and arms manufacturing have strived on the blood of society, especially in countries such as Sierra Leone, Uganda, Liberia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Gumede says businesses should take a more socio economic stance because they can produce African leaders with a modern vision. “ If businesses helped the communities, and provided talented people with opportunities. Then that community will protect the business.”
The head of asset management at Imara, John Legat, dismisses claims that Tunisia and Egypt’s contagion could spread in through Sub Saharan Africa. He bases his argument on the notion that there is relatively low risk of Egyptians contagion affecting equity values in Sub Saharan Africa, even Middle East and North African equity markets fell by 20% due to the unrest in Tunisia and Egypt. In addition, the Egyptian stock exchange was closed on January 30 and the Cairo market fell by 21 percent before share trading was suspended.
He says that this view is based on the Botswana registered Imara, a merchant banking and investment management group that markets several Africa – focused investment funds “while maintaining strong-on the ground representation in African jurisdictions.”
In his observations, he notes that “Sub-Saharan markets, excluding South Africa, generally have low correlation with one another and with the major international economies.”
He continues to add that political risk has always been considered in Egypt, noting that in the past, “this factor may have been under-estimated by some investors. This underlines the advisability of position-taking in a range of markets when creating a general portfolio with an African focus.”
In contrast, George Lwanda, a project economist from the Development Bank of Southern Africa disagrees with Legats views and points out that ripple effects of the crisis in Egypt can be seen on the weakening rand which is sitting uneasily with investors. He says that investors are becoming increasingly risk averse and have a tendency of looking at Africa as one country, which is putting pressure on Sub Saharan Africa.
He also points out that the rising costs of electricity, weaker rand and oil expenses could be linked with the riots, which could also see inflation rising and ultimately an increase in interest rates.
He continues to argue that that Egypt is the main economy in Comesa which consists of 23 different countries. The effect that this could have on Egypt’s trading abilities could be immense, which could have a direct knock on effect to the other member nations which are a part of Comesa.
“Egypt was identified as one of the main countries to invest in, its difficult to see how this could not have a negative economic impact on the rest of Sub Saharan Africa.”
He further contends that an economic problem, transformed into a political problem in Egypt, and pointed out that in comparison to South Africa, unrests of this nature can only happen on local government level because there is no tight dictatorial grip in the country.
He further claims that the shape in which Egypt will emerge from the crisis will have implications on the rest of Africa, especially if there is no visionary leader to steer Egypt into the right direction.
Through the experiences of Egypt and Tunisia, the toppling of the old undemocratic guard is inevitable. A growing number of unemployed youth and frustrated graduates who did not experience the liberation struggle will set the direction and pave the way for political development and modernization of leadership.
Old rhetoric and aid dependency has no place in the age of new media and the quest for freedom. The disorganization and irrelevance of the African Union has all but sealed the fate of “dictator clubs” which have come to characterize political leadership in Africa.
The minimalist approach to democracy in Africa will continue to be an impediment to the continents development. Instead of moving beyond mere electorlaism. These dictators and presidents for life have continued to conduct artificial elections for the benefits of aid ties, while others have suppressed political opponents clinging to power no matter what the consequences.
Friday, January 14, 2011
Projected maize surplus reaches 6 million tons
Sufficient summer rain has boosted South Africa s maize crop, leading to a 6 million ton surplus that has kept prices down. Farmers may benefit from higher global food prices after droughts and floods.
Plentiful summer rain in the maize triangle has enabled farmers to harvest bumper crops, boosting the surplus of maize stocks, according to Ernst Janovsky, the head of agribusiness at Absa.
As a result, the estimate of this season’s maize surplus has been revised to 6 million tons from a projection of 4 million tons in November last year.
At a recent presentation on the agricultural outlook, Janovsky said 70 percent of local agricultural prices were influenced by world prices.
Andre Jooste, a senior manager for marketing and economic research at the National Agricultural Marketing Council, explained that South Africa was a relatively open market, which meant the current concern over food prices globally would inevitably spill over into the South African market.
He said South Africa was currently a net importer of processed foods, rice and wheat, and an exporter of commodities such as maize and soya beans.
A report from Econometrix said indices of international food prices had risen by an average of 30 percent a year in dollar terms in the recent past.
The head of commodities at PSG Prime, Pieter van Wyk, said US maize prices had risen by 85 percent since July last year and the trend reflected a shortage of grain stocks.
His analysis of the prices was based on Chicago Board of Trade figures, which showed a sharp increase in maize futures from $130 (R886) a ton in July 2010 to $240 a ton this month
.
“International prices have been rising and maize earning stocks are the tightest in 15 years. In contrast our stocks are fairly loose, which will result in a 3 million earning stock, so it looks like its going to be a good season,” he said.
With higher revenues and relatively low input inflation, profits are likely to improve in the long run.
Nico Hawkins, an economist from Grain SA, said farmers stood to benefit from better prices internationally, although prices would stay low on the domestic front.
Hawkins said farmers could not currently make a profit because the costs to cultivate a hectare of maize were higher than the income per hectare. He said farmers could benefit from price increases if the exchange rate weakened.
Hawkins said if current prices increased, traders stood to make a profit in the local market. He noted that if there was going to be a reduced global supply of maize, it would put South African farmers in a better position.
He also maintained that domestic maize prices were currently at their lowest in years because of the surplus and the strength of the rand.
Elizabeth Trudeau, a spokeswoman for the US diplomatic mission to South Africa, said the exporting of South African maize had helped to meet the demand for food in other parts of Africa and across the world.
A report from Econometrix said the rise in international food prices could be attributed to crude oil gains and economic growth on the back of massive global stimulus packages.
Food prices had also surged because floods and droughts had hit crops around the world.
Janovsky explained that although the stronger rand reduced the value of exports, it presented good investment opportunities, especially for imported machinery.
Low interest rates were also helping, he said.. - Ayanda Mdluli
Plentiful summer rain in the maize triangle has enabled farmers to harvest bumper crops, boosting the surplus of maize stocks, according to Ernst Janovsky, the head of agribusiness at Absa.
As a result, the estimate of this season’s maize surplus has been revised to 6 million tons from a projection of 4 million tons in November last year.
At a recent presentation on the agricultural outlook, Janovsky said 70 percent of local agricultural prices were influenced by world prices.
Andre Jooste, a senior manager for marketing and economic research at the National Agricultural Marketing Council, explained that South Africa was a relatively open market, which meant the current concern over food prices globally would inevitably spill over into the South African market.
He said South Africa was currently a net importer of processed foods, rice and wheat, and an exporter of commodities such as maize and soya beans.
A report from Econometrix said indices of international food prices had risen by an average of 30 percent a year in dollar terms in the recent past.
The head of commodities at PSG Prime, Pieter van Wyk, said US maize prices had risen by 85 percent since July last year and the trend reflected a shortage of grain stocks.
His analysis of the prices was based on Chicago Board of Trade figures, which showed a sharp increase in maize futures from $130 (R886) a ton in July 2010 to $240 a ton this month
.
“International prices have been rising and maize earning stocks are the tightest in 15 years. In contrast our stocks are fairly loose, which will result in a 3 million earning stock, so it looks like its going to be a good season,” he said.
With higher revenues and relatively low input inflation, profits are likely to improve in the long run.
Nico Hawkins, an economist from Grain SA, said farmers stood to benefit from better prices internationally, although prices would stay low on the domestic front.
Hawkins said farmers could not currently make a profit because the costs to cultivate a hectare of maize were higher than the income per hectare. He said farmers could benefit from price increases if the exchange rate weakened.
Hawkins said if current prices increased, traders stood to make a profit in the local market. He noted that if there was going to be a reduced global supply of maize, it would put South African farmers in a better position.
He also maintained that domestic maize prices were currently at their lowest in years because of the surplus and the strength of the rand.
Elizabeth Trudeau, a spokeswoman for the US diplomatic mission to South Africa, said the exporting of South African maize had helped to meet the demand for food in other parts of Africa and across the world.
A report from Econometrix said the rise in international food prices could be attributed to crude oil gains and economic growth on the back of massive global stimulus packages.
Food prices had also surged because floods and droughts had hit crops around the world.
Janovsky explained that although the stronger rand reduced the value of exports, it presented good investment opportunities, especially for imported machinery.
Low interest rates were also helping, he said.. - Ayanda Mdluli
Rand forecast to strengthen in 2011
Analysts forecast that the rand will continue to strengthen in 2011 due to the weakening of the US dollar and euro currency.
However, when pitted against the currencies of other developing nations, the rand will not see any significant gains because of rising interest rates, said Ilke Smith, an economics analyst at metropolitan asset managers.
Smith said the strengthening of the rand in 2011 will come as a result of expansive monetary policies in the developed nations as well as government interventions in the form of fiscal policy, coupled with a tighter South African monetary policy when compared to countries such as the US and Britain.
She said smaller companies in the manufacturing sector were likely to bear the brunt of a stronger rand because their competitive advantage would decline in the export markets. However, she added intermediate products would do well because there would be a higher consumer demand, and importers would also benefit.
She added that the high international food and oil prices would benefit SA and would also keep the rand more subdued for a longer period. She argued that unions should embrace the stronger rand because it would keep local food prices lower.
“The notion of a weaker rand is silly, As a developing nation the stronger rand will help us get far, one shouldn't look at it as the bearer of bad news because it would ensure that domestic food prices remained low. Our debt management is also in a better position than other developed countries.
This position will ensure that we keep capital in SA and get more returns on investments.”
However, she pointed out that the stronger rand was not based on SA's economy doing well, but was based on the poor performing US dollar and pound. She added that a negative impact of the stronger rand would a deterrent to foreign direct investment because investors would be giving more of their currency to get one rand.
Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec, said sovereign debt contagion was the single biggest risk for the rand in 2011. She said the fallout could be larger than before, which meant that the rand could weaken substantially on the sudden outflow of foreign investments due to the heightened levels of risk aversion.
“The March to May period sees the rollover of sovereign debt for many of the advanced economies at risk of bankruptcy, while January tends to see a high degree of bond issuance as governments front load sales.”
She added that second risk scenario for the rand was that the euro would continue to weaken due to the woes on the eurozone, but the rand would strengthen once again once the sovereign debt crunch in the eurozone had been overcome.
Late on Wednesday, the rand was bid 6.83 to the US dollar, 8.92 against the euro and 10.71 versus the British sterling. - Ayanda Mdluli
However, when pitted against the currencies of other developing nations, the rand will not see any significant gains because of rising interest rates, said Ilke Smith, an economics analyst at metropolitan asset managers.
Smith said the strengthening of the rand in 2011 will come as a result of expansive monetary policies in the developed nations as well as government interventions in the form of fiscal policy, coupled with a tighter South African monetary policy when compared to countries such as the US and Britain.
She said smaller companies in the manufacturing sector were likely to bear the brunt of a stronger rand because their competitive advantage would decline in the export markets. However, she added intermediate products would do well because there would be a higher consumer demand, and importers would also benefit.
She added that the high international food and oil prices would benefit SA and would also keep the rand more subdued for a longer period. She argued that unions should embrace the stronger rand because it would keep local food prices lower.
“The notion of a weaker rand is silly, As a developing nation the stronger rand will help us get far, one shouldn't look at it as the bearer of bad news because it would ensure that domestic food prices remained low. Our debt management is also in a better position than other developed countries.
This position will ensure that we keep capital in SA and get more returns on investments.”
However, she pointed out that the stronger rand was not based on SA's economy doing well, but was based on the poor performing US dollar and pound. She added that a negative impact of the stronger rand would a deterrent to foreign direct investment because investors would be giving more of their currency to get one rand.
Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec, said sovereign debt contagion was the single biggest risk for the rand in 2011. She said the fallout could be larger than before, which meant that the rand could weaken substantially on the sudden outflow of foreign investments due to the heightened levels of risk aversion.
“The March to May period sees the rollover of sovereign debt for many of the advanced economies at risk of bankruptcy, while January tends to see a high degree of bond issuance as governments front load sales.”
She added that second risk scenario for the rand was that the euro would continue to weaken due to the woes on the eurozone, but the rand would strengthen once again once the sovereign debt crunch in the eurozone had been overcome.
Late on Wednesday, the rand was bid 6.83 to the US dollar, 8.92 against the euro and 10.71 versus the British sterling. - Ayanda Mdluli
Sunday, January 9, 2011
A bastard's retaliation to a bitch's brew...he he he
According to the Oxford dictionary, a bastard is defined as a person born of unmarried parents; an illegitimate baby, child or adult. It is also defined as a hybrid, an animal, person or plant born out of two different species or races...especially by accident. Then there is off course my favourite, the more informal meaning of the word, which contends that a bastard is an obnoxious or despicable person. Wow, all these definitions...interesting.
Now I'm not writing this piece to do a comparative analysis between a bastard and a bitch. As far as I'm concerned a woman has every right to be a bitch if she wants to. Just don't bitch when you are around me, and please oh please do not nag me when I'm drinking beer and watching TV, because then I'll just think OK i got me another nagger...Then I'm outta there faster than you can ask: does this look fat on me?
OK sisters, lets get one thing straight, I love you all, I think you are the most beautiful creation God hath made on this planet. I cant even begin to imagine what life would be without you beautiful queens by my side, and besides you were created out of my rib so each and everyone of you out there is a flesh of my flesh, blood of my blood and you shall bear me future princes, warriors and princesses, for you are woman and God is you, because your bodies are just oh so heavenly, so please don't ask me if you look fat in anything, cause chances are you do and I like it that way. Besides, I wouldn't stick around if you didn't look good in anything, and I think you look very sexy in my soccer jersey after a steamy hot session of you know what.
With all that said ladies, with all those feelings of love and sense of belonging when we engage in pillow talk, I am still a bastard. I was born out of wedlock, was raised by a single parent and never had shit. the only thing I have going for me is a supportive mother, sister, daughter and an honours degree which has seen me rise above my peers who had all the wonderful opportunities that life in a free democratic South Africa could offer.
I on the other hand was born black, grew up poor, and now living in my prime, destined for greater things such money...lots and lots of money, which is what motivates me to be the best I can be. You see, what makes me a truly remarkable bastard is that beyond my self centered black-ass bastard persona, I have never forgotten about my roots and the pain my mama suffered to make me what I am today. I'm a lucky bastard, how else would I explain how I came about today? hnm?? Got me thinking again and getting carried away. You see, being a lucky bastard created enemies for me along the way in my short life.
There were and still are people who wanted to see me fail, people who wanted to see me down and out so they could stand on my chest with one foot and do a victory dance. Weight after weight of hate and bickering, gossip and slander, trickery and spit was piled on my shoulders. I was told I would never mount to anything, and would end up as a another figure in the crime statistics. There was a time when I even started to believe it, I would start thinking that maybe the only way out for me was to remain as an insignificant shit pellet, hanging from a pubic hair on the crack of the world's backside. Aah..the Irony, today I can smile when I look at my graduation pictures, the smile on my mama's face is priceless.
When I put money in her hand and tell her to buy whatever she likes, when I buy groceries at home, when I take my grandmother out to Spur on her birthday. When my daughter says she wants a bicycle and gets a bicycle. That's what I have lived for and that is what makes me a truly remarkable bastard, born out of wedlock, never shit but living a life that most in our poverty stricken country could ever dream of.
Now sister girl, my beautiful queen, with all this weight on our shoulders why is it that us good niggas have to pay for all the shit your past boyfriend's did? I have heard it all, men are dogs, men are all the same, I don't need a man to make me happy, he is not good enough for you, do this do that yap yap, yap yap yap fuckidy yap yap. Get over it!...I'm not here to sponge off you, I'm not here to live rent free. I'm here to love you and treat you like the true African princess that you are. I love everything about you, your thick lips, big ass and stretch marks that come with it.
I will never ask you to go and get breast implants or a liposuction, but I will ask you to accompany me to the gym so that we can live a long and sexually pleasant life. It is not about your weight and what you got, it's about who you are and what you want. Just maybe, did you stop to think about the fact that the reason why I'm looking for some nooky outside our home is because you have a headache every night and are concerned that maybe all I want from you is sex and nothing more? Get over it, there are only two tubes that lead to man's heart. One is the Oesophagus which, leads to the stomach and the other is the urinal which excretes a substance associated with pure sexual bliss. So let's get one with straight, before you bitch about niggas who don't do anything except eat, sleep, shit and live for free in your apartment.
Maybe you should actually get out of your cocoon and open your heart to all the good, successful, hard working niggas out there. I like the irony though, when we don't have shit and don't work for a living, its a problem...when we do have shit and work hard for a living...It's another problem. You just gotta love our beautiful sisters emotional, yet irrational complexities at times.
Now, stop the male bashing, get me another beer, feed me and quietly wait in the bedroom for your king to return. Or you can watch the game with me and agree to everything I about the stupid referee.
Now I'm not writing this piece to do a comparative analysis between a bastard and a bitch. As far as I'm concerned a woman has every right to be a bitch if she wants to. Just don't bitch when you are around me, and please oh please do not nag me when I'm drinking beer and watching TV, because then I'll just think OK i got me another nagger...Then I'm outta there faster than you can ask: does this look fat on me?
OK sisters, lets get one thing straight, I love you all, I think you are the most beautiful creation God hath made on this planet. I cant even begin to imagine what life would be without you beautiful queens by my side, and besides you were created out of my rib so each and everyone of you out there is a flesh of my flesh, blood of my blood and you shall bear me future princes, warriors and princesses, for you are woman and God is you, because your bodies are just oh so heavenly, so please don't ask me if you look fat in anything, cause chances are you do and I like it that way. Besides, I wouldn't stick around if you didn't look good in anything, and I think you look very sexy in my soccer jersey after a steamy hot session of you know what.
With all that said ladies, with all those feelings of love and sense of belonging when we engage in pillow talk, I am still a bastard. I was born out of wedlock, was raised by a single parent and never had shit. the only thing I have going for me is a supportive mother, sister, daughter and an honours degree which has seen me rise above my peers who had all the wonderful opportunities that life in a free democratic South Africa could offer.
I on the other hand was born black, grew up poor, and now living in my prime, destined for greater things such money...lots and lots of money, which is what motivates me to be the best I can be. You see, what makes me a truly remarkable bastard is that beyond my self centered black-ass bastard persona, I have never forgotten about my roots and the pain my mama suffered to make me what I am today. I'm a lucky bastard, how else would I explain how I came about today? hnm?? Got me thinking again and getting carried away. You see, being a lucky bastard created enemies for me along the way in my short life.
There were and still are people who wanted to see me fail, people who wanted to see me down and out so they could stand on my chest with one foot and do a victory dance. Weight after weight of hate and bickering, gossip and slander, trickery and spit was piled on my shoulders. I was told I would never mount to anything, and would end up as a another figure in the crime statistics. There was a time when I even started to believe it, I would start thinking that maybe the only way out for me was to remain as an insignificant shit pellet, hanging from a pubic hair on the crack of the world's backside. Aah..the Irony, today I can smile when I look at my graduation pictures, the smile on my mama's face is priceless.
When I put money in her hand and tell her to buy whatever she likes, when I buy groceries at home, when I take my grandmother out to Spur on her birthday. When my daughter says she wants a bicycle and gets a bicycle. That's what I have lived for and that is what makes me a truly remarkable bastard, born out of wedlock, never shit but living a life that most in our poverty stricken country could ever dream of.
Now sister girl, my beautiful queen, with all this weight on our shoulders why is it that us good niggas have to pay for all the shit your past boyfriend's did? I have heard it all, men are dogs, men are all the same, I don't need a man to make me happy, he is not good enough for you, do this do that yap yap, yap yap yap fuckidy yap yap. Get over it!...I'm not here to sponge off you, I'm not here to live rent free. I'm here to love you and treat you like the true African princess that you are. I love everything about you, your thick lips, big ass and stretch marks that come with it.
I will never ask you to go and get breast implants or a liposuction, but I will ask you to accompany me to the gym so that we can live a long and sexually pleasant life. It is not about your weight and what you got, it's about who you are and what you want. Just maybe, did you stop to think about the fact that the reason why I'm looking for some nooky outside our home is because you have a headache every night and are concerned that maybe all I want from you is sex and nothing more? Get over it, there are only two tubes that lead to man's heart. One is the Oesophagus which, leads to the stomach and the other is the urinal which excretes a substance associated with pure sexual bliss. So let's get one with straight, before you bitch about niggas who don't do anything except eat, sleep, shit and live for free in your apartment.
Maybe you should actually get out of your cocoon and open your heart to all the good, successful, hard working niggas out there. I like the irony though, when we don't have shit and don't work for a living, its a problem...when we do have shit and work hard for a living...It's another problem. You just gotta love our beautiful sisters emotional, yet irrational complexities at times.
Now, stop the male bashing, get me another beer, feed me and quietly wait in the bedroom for your king to return. Or you can watch the game with me and agree to everything I about the stupid referee.
Lights may dim, Eskom warns
As many as 500 major users of electricity across the economy may have to face mandatory power cuts if Eskom is forced to ratchet up its bid to plug the gap between supply and demand over the next three years.
Users spanning such critical sectors as mining, transport and manufacturing might be discouraged from increasing employment should these cuts be effected, Tony Twine, a senior economist at Econometrix, said yesterday.
Other businesses such as ferrochrome and aluminium smelters would not be able to expand their businesses should mandatory cuts come into play, he added.
“This could lead to constraints on plans put forward by (Economic Development Minister) Ebrahim Patel to use labour-intensive industries to produce jobs,” Twine said, referring to the government’s New Growth Path, which aims to create 5 million jobs over the next decade.
“Even a threat of mandatory cuts could see a deterrence in industries and job creation.”
Eskom chief executive Brian Dames yesterday warned that South Africa could face critical shortfalls as early as March because almost a quarter of its generating capacity, including half of the Koeberg nuclear plant, was undergoing maintenance because of equipment failures.
In addition heavy rains had reduced the supply of coal to some power stations. This meant the safety margin between consumption and supply had narrowed.
Eskom would face similar problems until 2013 when the new Medupi baseload plant is expected to come on line.
Dames outlined an energy conservation scheme (ECS), which is still a work in progress between the utility’s various stakeholders, such as the Department of Energy.
“The ECS would be mandatory and is aimed at the largest 500 electricity users,” Dames said. “The scheme would provide a certainty of demand for at least seven years for those customers that consume between 50 percent and 60 percent of the electricity.”
He added that the ECS would send strong signals to improve energy efficiency rather than face disruptive load shedding.
He warned that the country faced a risk to electricity supply unless steps were taken to address a possible shortfall of 6 terawatt-hours in 2011/12 and 9 terawatt-hours in 2013.
Dames said Eskom needed 2 000 megawatts of operating reserves and highlighted that there was enough capacity between now and the end of February, conceding there were inadequate reserves to go around.
He outlined various risks associated with the constraints of the system. These included unexpected heavy rains and an unplanned shutdown of two units at the Koeberg nuclear power station.
Dames said the loss of half of Koeberg’s generating capacity had significantly reduced the utility’s flexibility to conduct maintenance at its coal-fired power station. This has resulted in a postponement of maintenance and an increased risk of unplanned power outages at some of its stations.
“Most of our power stations are in their mid-life and require more maintenance. Due to the low reserve margin there is insufficient available time to carry out essential maintenance,” Dames said.
Andrew Etzinger, Eskom’s senior general manager of integrated demand management, said there would be no moratorium on new connections and where new customers were connected, there would be sufficient electricity to meet energy demands.
“We support growth and we will look at ways of ensuring efficient production.”
Eskom spokeswoman Hilary Joffe said she was confident the utility would complete its current R300 billion build programme in 2017 and that the utility had sufficient funding in place to complete the power stations and power lines.
She said the parastatal was using a mixture of its own cash and borrowed from a variety of sources and equities.
In contrast, Bloomberg said: “It sounds very similar to the last crisis with equipment failures, wet coal and the like, which begs the question: have they learnt the required lessons that time around?
“Investors need to be cautious that as the economy recovers the situation is only going to be worse next year before the next power station comes on line.” - Ayanda Mdluli
Users spanning such critical sectors as mining, transport and manufacturing might be discouraged from increasing employment should these cuts be effected, Tony Twine, a senior economist at Econometrix, said yesterday.
Other businesses such as ferrochrome and aluminium smelters would not be able to expand their businesses should mandatory cuts come into play, he added.
“This could lead to constraints on plans put forward by (Economic Development Minister) Ebrahim Patel to use labour-intensive industries to produce jobs,” Twine said, referring to the government’s New Growth Path, which aims to create 5 million jobs over the next decade.
“Even a threat of mandatory cuts could see a deterrence in industries and job creation.”
Eskom chief executive Brian Dames yesterday warned that South Africa could face critical shortfalls as early as March because almost a quarter of its generating capacity, including half of the Koeberg nuclear plant, was undergoing maintenance because of equipment failures.
In addition heavy rains had reduced the supply of coal to some power stations. This meant the safety margin between consumption and supply had narrowed.
Eskom would face similar problems until 2013 when the new Medupi baseload plant is expected to come on line.
Dames outlined an energy conservation scheme (ECS), which is still a work in progress between the utility’s various stakeholders, such as the Department of Energy.
“The ECS would be mandatory and is aimed at the largest 500 electricity users,” Dames said. “The scheme would provide a certainty of demand for at least seven years for those customers that consume between 50 percent and 60 percent of the electricity.”
He added that the ECS would send strong signals to improve energy efficiency rather than face disruptive load shedding.
He warned that the country faced a risk to electricity supply unless steps were taken to address a possible shortfall of 6 terawatt-hours in 2011/12 and 9 terawatt-hours in 2013.
Dames said Eskom needed 2 000 megawatts of operating reserves and highlighted that there was enough capacity between now and the end of February, conceding there were inadequate reserves to go around.
He outlined various risks associated with the constraints of the system. These included unexpected heavy rains and an unplanned shutdown of two units at the Koeberg nuclear power station.
Dames said the loss of half of Koeberg’s generating capacity had significantly reduced the utility’s flexibility to conduct maintenance at its coal-fired power station. This has resulted in a postponement of maintenance and an increased risk of unplanned power outages at some of its stations.
“Most of our power stations are in their mid-life and require more maintenance. Due to the low reserve margin there is insufficient available time to carry out essential maintenance,” Dames said.
Andrew Etzinger, Eskom’s senior general manager of integrated demand management, said there would be no moratorium on new connections and where new customers were connected, there would be sufficient electricity to meet energy demands.
“We support growth and we will look at ways of ensuring efficient production.”
Eskom spokeswoman Hilary Joffe said she was confident the utility would complete its current R300 billion build programme in 2017 and that the utility had sufficient funding in place to complete the power stations and power lines.
She said the parastatal was using a mixture of its own cash and borrowed from a variety of sources and equities.
In contrast, Bloomberg said: “It sounds very similar to the last crisis with equipment failures, wet coal and the like, which begs the question: have they learnt the required lessons that time around?
“Investors need to be cautious that as the economy recovers the situation is only going to be worse next year before the next power station comes on line.” - Ayanda Mdluli
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)